Navigating the property landscape, particularly in a town like Newbury, requires more than just a reactive approach to the daily newspaper and social media headlines.
As homeowners and potential investors are continuously bombarded with alarming whispers of plummeting house prices, coupled with rising interest rates and the heartache of negative equity, there’s a tangible atmosphere of anxiety and trepidation. Yet, the truth we must all embrace is this:
No one can predict the property market with pinpoint accuracy,
not even the experts. Interestingly, we had our best month ever in August with a record number of valuations and viewings taking place
Every press release from the Halifax, Nationwide or Land Registry with the merest hint of a downturn or hiccup in the property market becomes headline fodder, often stoking fears and uncertainty. Why do the newspapers and clickbait doom mongers post that?
Because ‘bad news’ sells newspapers!
Did you know, Newbury house prices are only 3.7% lower
than their peak of March 2023.
(£421,637 March 2023 to £406,022 June 2023 – the most up-to-date data from the Land Registry).
Interesting when compared with a national drop of 1.9% over the same time frame, with most areas seeing house prices rise in the last two months!
Historically, property prices have exhibited a rhythmic dance of peaks and troughs. A review of housing market trends over decades would reveal this inherent cyclical nature. House price declines are only a prelude to eventual rebounds. This pattern has been the underpinning of the property market for generations.
So what does the future hold for Newbury homeowners?
For homeowners in Newbury, it’s crucial to understand the broader context. Global economic dynamics, national policies, regional developments, and local demand-supply dynamics all play pivotal roles in determining property prices.
As such, while short-term market shifts are inevitable, they don’t necessarily define the long-term trajectory of property values.
Moreover, property should often be viewed as a long-term investment.
While the temptation to make quick decisions based on current trends is strong, it’s vital to consider the bigger picture. Remember that property isn’t just an asset; for many, it’s a home, a place of memories, and a cornerstone of family life.
The mortgage interest rates of 1% to 1.5%, that we saw up to 18 months ago, are not going to return. Yet looking at 5-year swap rates, the money markets are predicting (with billions and billions of pounds of their own money at stake) that UK interest rates will come down significantly over the next 5 years from their current levels of around early 6%.
There is a saying in property –
“Marry the house, and date the interest rate”.
It simply means you are committing to a long-term relationship with the house you love. Yet you can dump the interest rate when you re-mortgage. The idea is that when you find the house you love, you buy it, with the anticipation that you will be able to refinance later when interest rates drop.
Diving into the archives of property history, one witnesses a tale as old as time: a fluctuating market characterised by peaks and troughs. Like the ever-rolling waves of the sea, property prices rise, fall, and rise again.
Such is the cyclical nature of housing markets worldwide, and Newbury is no exception.
To truly succeed in Newbury’s property domain, it’s less about reacting to today’s noise and more about tuning into the timeless melodies of history, patience, and informed foresight.
If would like a chat about where you sit in the Newbury property market, do not hesitate to give me a call or drop me a message on social media.
